AT the Labour Together think tank, we’ve spent weeks crunching the data on what handed Keir Starmer his landslide victory this summer.
The conclusion is crystal clear.
Voters switching from the Tories to Labour were the decisive factor.
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Previously loyal Tory voters wanted change and were reassured by Keir Starmer’s changed Labour Party.
As the Labour faithful head to Liverpool for their annual jamboree next week, and newly elected Labour MPs celebrate their election victories, now is not the time to get carried away.
A landslide victory in one General Election does not guarantee re-election five years down the line.
Just ask any of the so-called Red Wall Tories who thought they were secure for years to come.
In July, millions of voters put their trust in Labour — some for the first time ever.
Hare-brained schemes
They did so because they yearned for change and wanted a government laser- focused on rebuilding the economy and fixing the NHS.
But they weren’t giving the new Labour government a blank cheque.
The top team round the Cabinet table are still on probation.
When trust in politics is so low and voting behaviour so volatile, voters want to see government deliver on the economy, the NHS and tackling illegal immigration.
Labour failing to do so and not making good on its promises puts in jeopardy a second term.
Unfulfilled pledges are why so many incumbent governments the world over struggle for re-election
That doesn’t mean phoney promises and hare-brained schemes.
The country had that in spades under the Tories.
All that did was lumber the taxpayer with a £22billion gap in the national accounts, and broken public services. Instead, it means actually delivering the promised change.
That starts with fixing the problems in the economy.
Tough decisions are necessary to bring back economic stability. The black hole the Tories left must be dealt with.
In doing so, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is laying the foundation stone for a growing, more prosperous economy with good, well-paid jobs.
I call it prudence for prosperity.
Second, we need to get building again.
Frankly, it’s like wading through treacle to get anything built in this country.
We’re all hoping things can only get better, but this isn’t 1997. Trust in all politicians is low and the electoral landscape is fractured
We used to tell our young people to work hard, save and you’ll get on the housing ladder.
But for so many youngsters, the dream of home ownership is too far out of reach.
Ministers need to face down the bureaucratic blockers and sweep away pointless rules that delay house-building.
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Change lives for the better
Third, we’ve got to get people back to work. The welfare bill is ballooning, with more and more young people signed off on the sick.
Being out of work when young risks a life on the margins.
It means young people with their whole life ahead of them get trapped on welfare, going nowhere.
Writing off a generation to worklessness can no longer be tolerated.
Young people need access to decent training opportunities.
We should be putting in place links between job centres and NHS mental health services.
Ministers will need to deliver a welfare reform programme of real help for young people to find a job, with consequences for those who refuse.
But our economy won’t flourish, and voters won’t forgive Labour, unless the NHS is turned around as well.
We all know waiting lists are painfully long and satisfaction levels miserably low.
This week Health Secretary Wes Streeting said that without reform, the NHS will die. He’s right.
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Trust is low
The Government has made a start, slashing red tape to help recruit 1,000 more family doctors.
But he will need to go further, putting in place internal changes to modernise the NHS.
It beggars belief that clinicians still too often need to use fax machines and sometimes even pagers.
The Government should insist that every penny spent properly drives up standards, to provide quality care.
Tough decisions are necessary to bring back economic stability
Voters want change and they rightly expect a changed Labour Party to govern as it campaigned — in the service of working people.
We’re all hoping things can only get better, but this isn’t 1997.
Trust in all politicians is low and the electoral landscape is fractured.
As the publication today of Labour Together’s analysis shows, the Government must continue to make voter priorities their priorities.
The warning signs of not doing so are perilously clear.