THE world is holding its breath once more as mortal enemies Israel and Hezbollah trade deadly blows.
Considered a terrorist group by the UK and US governments, Iran-backed Hezbollah — which means Party of God — is an Islamist paramilitary group based on Israel’s northern border in Lebanon.
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Better armed than many nations, Hezbollah is a way more formidable enemy than Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Now there are fears that Israel and Hezbollah could be heading for all-out war.
So how did we get here — and what can Britain and the West do to dampen tensions?
On July 27 a Hezbollah rocket hit the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
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The blast killed 12 children from the Druze religious minority — who were playing football in a playground — and wounded at least 42 others.
I believe they would assassinate Nasrallah if they could get to him
Professor Michael Clarke
I believe that Hezbollah didn’t target the town on purpose and that it was a fatal mistake.
However, it provoked a deadly backlash from Israel.
On July 30 the Israelis killed Fuad Shukr — who they believed responsible for the Majdal Shams attack — in an airstrike on the Lebanese capital Beirut.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said: “Hezbollah crossed the red line.”
Israel described Shukr as the “right-hand man” to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a senior member of the group’s jihad council.
The US had a $5million bounty on Shukr’s head for “playing a central role” in the 1983 US Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, which left 307 dead.
Hezbollah responded with more rocket fire into Israel.
Then Israel unleashed an audacious wave of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies that killed dozens and wounded thousands more.
On September 20 another Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed Ibrahim Aqil — Commander- in-Chief of Hezbollah’s elite Redwan Force — and 14 other high-ranking Hezbollah fighters.
Aqil was also linked to the Beirut Marine suicide bombing and had a $7million US bounty on his head. It’s clear to me that what the Israelis are doing is a decapitation strategy.
They have taken out the top two levels of command structure below Hezbollah chief Nasrallah. They are all dead.
And I believe they would assassinate Nasrallah if they could get to him.
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These killings are not down to luck or coincidence on the Israelis’ part.
They are working through the Hezbollah list, starting from the top down.
So what is their broader strategy behind the targeted killings?
One possibility is that they want Hezbollah to pull their forces back beyond the Litani River, about 18 miles north of the Lebanese-Israeli border.
In 2006 Hezbollah launched a cross-border raid on Israel, which responded by taking on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1701, which called for a full Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanese territory and for Hezbollah to move north of the Litani River.
UN and Lebanese army troops would then patrol the buffer zone to keep the peace.
A ceasefire took place, with Israeli forces leaving Lebanon.
But Hezbollah ignored the resolution and remained south of the Litani.
‘Real enemy’
Now Israel wants to create that buffer zone once more.
They want to ensure that 60,000 Israeli citizens who have fled their homes in northern Israel can return.
However, another possibility is that the Israelis know that Hezbollah won’t comply with that demand and that they are creating conditions for their fourth invasion of Lebanese territory.
They might be plotting to take over the Litani buffer zone themselves.
Or, another Israeli strategy may be that they feel it’s time to knock Hezbollah out of the game, at least for a few years.
The thinking might be that after the murders and rapes of October 7, Israel is again fighting for its very existence.
So the strategy could be: let’s take them on and under-mine them.
That means Israeli boots on the ground in Lebanon.
Behind Hezbollah are their patrons Iran. I believe Israel is calculating that the Iranians are currently too weak to intervene.
Can Britain, the US and other Western powers stop the bloodshed?
Professor Michael Clarke
It’s a high-stakes gamble.
Yet, it’s not unreasonable for the Israelis to say they want the UN buffer zone to be a reality up to the Litani River.
As and when they move in — as I’m fairly certain they will — they know they will be taking on a much bigger conflict with Hezbollah than they have with Hamas over the past 12 months.
After October 7, a lot of people in the Israeli government and the IDF, said: “Look, Hamas aren’t our real problem. It’s Hezbollah. They are the real enemy.”
Will Iran itself get directly involved? I don’t think so — at least not initially.
Can Britain, the US and other Western powers stop the bloodshed?
No, they have little influence over whatever happens.
It doesn’t matter what we say — neither Hezbollah nor the Israeli government are listening.
The view of both is: we’ll do what we need to do, and we’ll deal with all of the complaints afterwards.
It means, I fear, that we are heading towards a bloody ground war in Lebanon.
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